Nigon, Thomas (2020) Convergence on the Swedish housing market a study of Stockholm, Gothenburg, and Malmo. Master thesis.
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Master thesis S2753510 21-07-2020.pdf Download (1MB) | Preview |
Abstract
This paper examines housing price dynamics in Sweden over the course of 1998Q1-2020Q4 based on regional housing price data. This paper dives into the possibilities between the convergence or divergence between the regions of Stockholm, Gothenburg, and Malmo. To measure the convergence or divergence of these 3 biggest cities in Sweden a log-t-test is performed together with convergent grouping. Further, possible regional drivers for house price levels are considered in this paper, including: ‘construction activity, population and disposable income’ using a VAR-model to model the effect of the variables on each other. housing price drop which has had different effects concerning the three biggest cities in Sweden. The findings are as follows: first, the VAR-model indicates that the construction variable notes a positive effect on the short term in Stockholm and Malmo, and an eventual positive effect in Gothenburg, where all cities eventually decline on the long term. The Population variable showed to be negative on the short run for Gothenburg and Malmo, and positive for Stockholm. This can be the result of differences in demographics attracted to the cities or a mismatch of housing supply and housing demand. For disposable income, there is a negative shock in the short term for Malmo and Gothenburg but a small positive one for Stockholm. This can be because of the difference in mortgage debt of those cities. Furthermore, this paper finds evidence for convergence between Stockholm and Gothenburg. The housing prices between these cities seem to convergence with each other in the time frame. However, further research will need to be conducted to shed a light on this result.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Master) |
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| Degree programme: | Real Estate Studies |
| Supervisor: | Vlist, A.J. van der |
| Date Deposited: | 29 Jul 2020 12:53 |
| Last Modified: | 29 Jul 2020 12:53 |
| URI: | https://frw.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/3239 |
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