Dommele, Maarten van (2024) The evaluation of megaprojects: understanding the nuances of success and failure. Master thesis.
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Abstract
Megaprojects in infrastructure planning are lengthy, costly, and highly complex. They are funded by taxpayer’s money and have a large societal impact. These projects often exceed time and budget estimates, leading some to conclude that they are unsuccessful; nevertheless, they still occur frequently. It seems that their success or failure is more nuanced, which means that we need to gain a better understanding of megaproject success. Therefore, this study examines five major highway projects in the Netherlands by comparing ex-ante cost-benefit analyses (CBAs) and ex-post evaluations. Since ex-post evaluations of megaprojects are rarely conducted, this study uses an evaluation framework and in-depth interviews as a replacement. Results reveal that despite time and budget setbacks in some cases, the examined megaprojects seem to be successful in their expected outcomes. It appears that the effects on broad societal themes are often missing in ex-ante CBAs, and these effects are difficult to evaluate in ex-post situations. Project stakeholders are positive about broader forms of evaluation that do not only use time, cost, and scope as criteria but also allow for consideration of broader societal effects. Ideally, this would be a combination of narrative evaluation supported by quantitative analyses. The insights from these types of evaluations should not be used to punish but as a tool from which lessons can be drawn. The degree of subjectivity in these evaluations is highlighted, emphasizing the importance of who conducts them. Future research could explore how broader societal effects can be measured in ex-post evaluations and how different forms of evaluations can complement each other. A follow-up study directly building on this research could compare the results of the studied cases with the perceptions of other types of stakeholders. This could be done by conducting ex-post evaluations with, for example, stakeholders who were not professionally involved in these megaprojects, such as local residents or users. Taking this broader perspective will contribute to a more nuanced view of megaproject success.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Master) |
|---|---|
| Degree programme: | Environmental & Infrastructure Planning |
| Supervisor: | Groot, E.A.J. de |
| Date Deposited: | 04 Jul 2024 12:22 |
| Last Modified: | 04 Jul 2024 12:22 |
| URI: | https://frw.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/4544 |
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