Jansma, Ewoud (2024) Population projection of Stad & Lande: a disquisition of demographic scenarios to 2053. Master thesis.
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Abstract
Population projections are most often focused on the national level and scarcely use a subnational perspective. This research is an exception to the rule whereby the province of Groningen in the Netherlands was taken as the research region. The province is divided into two parts: the urban municipality of Groningen and the other rural municipalities. Separate population projections were performed for both regions using the cohort component method. The future development of the components of demographic change (fertility, mortality, internal migration, and international migration) is based on various methods including convergence and OLS simple regression. Based on these results, three different scenarios have been created: minimum, realistic, and maximum. The results show that the unique population structure (many young adults) of the municipality of Groningen will be maintained in the future. The dependency ratios will increase but only modestly. The opposite is the case in the other municipalities, where there will be a strong ageing population. The youth dependency ratio will remain stable, while the old-age dependency will increase sharply over the next two decades, and ultimately stabiles in the middle of the century. Both regions taken as a collective indicate that the province of Groningen as a whole will retain the relatively large share of young adults and that the share of elderly people will increase sharply in the future.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Master) |
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| Degree programme: | Population Studies |
| Supervisor: | Wissen, L.J.G. van |
| Date Deposited: | 09 Jul 2024 13:46 |
| Last Modified: | 09 Jul 2024 13:46 |
| URI: | https://frw.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/4582 |
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