eprintid: 90
rev_number: 1
eprint_status: archive
userid: 1
dir: disk0/00/00/00/90
datestamp: 2020-04-23 05:12:23
lastmod: 2020-04-23 05:12:23
status_changed: 2020-04-23 05:12:23
type: thesis
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Alvarez, Jesus
title: Modelling the fertility transition: Incorporating the effects of mortality on fertility
ispublished: pub
full_text_status: public
abstract: The current fertility projections of the United Nations (2013b) indicate that in the long term all countries in the world will end with fertility levels close to two children per woman. In recent years, most of the western countries have already attained low fertility levels; however, there are some other countries in which the uncertainty of reaching those levels is still high, for instance some African sub-Saharan and Asian countries.
In this research I analyzed regularities on fertility and child mortality of 63 countries around the world in order to refine the fertility projection of a group of countries that nowadays show high fertility levels. In this regard, a Bayesian approach is used and when child mortality is incorporated into the model, the slope of the fertility trajectory changes by slowing the pace of the decline and postponing the convergence to replacement levels.
date: 2016
date_type: published
thesis_type: pre_master
degree_programme: POPST
tutors_name: van Wissen, Leo
tutors_name: de Beer, Joop
keywords_local: fertility transition, mortality, sub-Saharan Africa, Bayesia
language_iso: en
titleorder: Modelling the fertility transition: Incorporating the effects of mortality on fertility
dbi: 57e0f695ab9c1
imported_item: yes
date_of_import: 2020-04-22
imported_from: http://scripties.frw.eldoc.ub.rug.nl/root/premasters/PopulationStudies/2016/jalvarez/
import_source_file: theses-frw-20200422132454-57e0f695ab9c1.xml
date_issued: 2016-01-01
citation:   Alvarez, Jesus  (2016) Modelling the fertility transition: Incorporating the effects of mortality on fertility.  Pre-master thesis.   
document_url: https://frw.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/90/1/Jesus_Alvarez_-_Thesis.pdf