Bosma, Lisa (2023) Population Dynamics in Fryslân: Exploring the Future Demographic Landscape through Projections and Variants. Master thesis.
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Abstract
Fryslân has undergone notable demographic transformations characterised by the presence of an aging population and population decline observed in specific regions of the province. Organisations, governments, and municipalities must be cognisant of the demographic composition of the area in which they operate. This, to anticipate for future demand and needs for public services such as hospitals and schools but also for companies to anticipate market demand or to determine potential areas of investment. This thesis was conducted for the Planbureau Fryslân and focusses on determining the population developments for Fryslân until 2050. Seven Frisian demographic variants until 2050 were created; Medium, Green, Gray, Decline, Growth, High Migration, and Low Migration. All demographic variants present different situations regarding the development of the demographic components fertility, mortality and migration. Additionally, this study is based upon a report published by the NIDI and CBS “Eindrapport Verkenning Bevolking 2050” and translates the national variants into Frisian variants. Results show that the Frisian demographic future shows large variation, both decline and growth are possible pathways. Moreover, high fertility or elevated migration patterns would result in increased demand for primary educational services and across all demographic variants, the proportion of potential working individuals relative to the total population is projected to decline, indicating a smaller future workforce compared to the present. Irrespective of developments in fertility, mortality, or migration, the Frisian population is aging. Informal care services will face heightened pressure in the future, with the highest impact expected in variants of high life expectancy or low migration. The findings of this thesis contribute to the broader understanding of demographic changes in Fryslân, and the variants can be used to build scenarios with further implications for regional development.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Master) |
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| Degree programme: | Population Studies |
| Supervisor: | Wissen, L.J.G. van |
| Date Deposited: | 11 Oct 2023 09:14 |
| Last Modified: | 11 Oct 2023 09:14 |
| URI: | https://frw.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/4409 |
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