Alvarez, Jesus (2016) Modelling the fertility transition: Incorporating the effects of mortality on fertility. Pre-master thesis.
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Abstract
The current fertility projections of the United Nations (2013b) indicate that in the long term all countries in the world will end with fertility levels close to two children per woman. In recent years, most of the western countries have already attained low fertility levels; however, there are some other countries in which the uncertainty of reaching those levels is still high, for instance some African sub-Saharan and Asian countries. In this research I analyzed regularities on fertility and child mortality of 63 countries around the world in order to refine the fertility projection of a group of countries that nowadays show high fertility levels. In this regard, a Bayesian approach is used and when child mortality is incorporated into the model, the slope of the fertility trajectory changes by slowing the pace of the decline and postponing the convergence to replacement levels.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Pre-master) |
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| Degree programme: | Population Studies |
| Supervisor: | van Wissen, Leo and de Beer, Joop |
| Date Deposited: | 23 Apr 2020 05:12 |
| Last Modified: | 23 Apr 2020 05:12 |
| URI: | https://frw.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/90 |
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